Celtics vs. Heat. Game 7. What are the biggest questions heading into the winner-takes-all matchup? Who will advance to the NBA Finals? We have you covered.
Three Questions for the HeatWhich Jimmy Butler will show up?
In Games 3–5, Jimmy Butler scored 27 points total, missing half of Game 3 due to a knee injury and returning only to be a shell of himself in Games 4 and 5, both Heat losses. In Game 6, Butler put together arguably the finest performance of his career, scoring 47 points along with nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals. It may not be more simple for Miami in Game 7 than getting a great Butler game as opposed to a mediocre one. His two 40-point efforts in this series coincided with the Heat’s two most impressive wins. The common thread in those games were elite shotmaking and getting to the free-throw line. In Games 1 and 6, Butler went to the line 29 times combined. In Games 2–5, Butler attempted only 14 free throws, including none in Game 4.
The key to Butler’s success in the playoffs has been his excellence in the pick and roll. He ran only 4.3 per game as the ball-handler during the regular season. In Game 6, he ran 13, including six alone in the fourth quarter, per Synergy Sports. In the postseason, Butler overall is running more pick and rolls every night, and he’s averaging 1.16 points per possession—an elite mark. If the downhill, finish-at-the-rim-through-contact Butler is available for the Heat, their chances of winning increase exponentially. If Butler is playing tentatively on his knee and screening more often than attacking with the ball, Miami will be in trouble. (A few more threes and late-clock turnaround jumpers wouldn’t hurt, either.) —
Can the three-point shooters get going?
In the regular season, Miami led the league in three-point shooting at 37.9%. In the conference finals, the Heat are shooting only 31.5% from deep, the worst of any team from the final four. Boston deserves a ton of credit for suffocating Miami’s shooters. The Celtics’ ability to switch one through five makes it hard for any wing players to shake loose coming around screens. And Derrick White in particular has done a great job chasing around Max Strus when both are in the game. Meanwhile, Miami’s inability to consistently attack the rim means the defense isn’t collapsing into the paint. In the regular season, the Heat were second in the league attempting 11.1 corner threes a game, and second best in converting them at a 41.9% rate. Against Boston, Miami is putting up only 9.3 corner threes a game, connecting on a pitiful 26.8%—thanks in no small part to Robert Williams’s ability to close out from the lane to the corners.
Are the Heat due for a big shooting night? The Celtics do drop at times on screens, often with Williams. Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and maybe even Victor Oladipo may need to step into and hit some big shots. And if Butler does start applying pressure inside, that could open up opportunities as well. One issue for Miami is as the rotation has tightened, that has made less space for some of its best shooters. If the Heat are finally able to get going from outside, that could help their otherwise moribund offense. —
This is really the big battleground in this series. Miami can’t score in the halfcourt, and the Celtics are generally better equipped to do so—even against the Heat’s stout defense—because of their combination of size and shooting. When Miami stacks up Celtics turnovers, its chances of winning go through the roof. In the Heat’s three wins this series, Boston has 56 turnovers. In the Heat’s three losses, Boston has only 33.
Part of the issue is the Celtics’ shaky passing. But Miami’s defense deserves credit. Butler is constantly lurking in passing lanes, and the Heat do a great job of crowding Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown whenever they crash the paint. P.J. Tucker and Oladipo have been absolute ballhawks, and Miami seems O.K. living with some open threes if it means the team can get out in transition and score some easy buckets. If the Heat continue to dig, strip, steal and intercept in Game 7, they’ll give themselves an opportunity to score enough points to win. If they can’t keep generating live-ball turnovers, the contest tips back in Boston’s favor. —
