Statistically speaking, Alan Shearer is the greatest goalscorer in Premier League history – that statistic being his famous all-time record of 260 goals in the competition.
Having been involved in the top flight since the first ever Premier League season, Shearer didn’t so much topple another striker to ascend to the goalscoring throne as he did lay down the benchmark practically from the off, amassing an incredible 112 goals by the end of 1995/96 and adding to that haul with every campaign until eventually retiring in 2006.
Accordingly, Shearer is largely unrivalled at the top of the Premier League’s all-time scoring charts, currently standing 62 ahead of his closest competitor, Wayne Rooney. That, combined with the fact he boasts a unique advantage over present day strikers having taken part in the Premier League’s three only 42-game seasons, has created a widely-held belief of Shearer’s staggering total being virtually impenetrable – barring a divine entity of the Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo variety spending his whole career at the top of English football.
But the celebration of the Premier League’s 25th anniversary this summer beckons that theory to be put to the test, asking if we’re in store for another 25 years of Shearer’s goalscoring immortality or whether a striker in the division today can eventually knock the former Blackburn Rovers striker off his historic perch.
With that in mind, we’ve taken a look at five strikers at varying stages of their Premier League careers for varying reasons. As the two Premier League forwards who strike that perfect equilibrium between age, proven netting prowess and ability, Manchester United’s summer signing Romelu Lukaku and Tottenham’s back-to-back Golden Boot winner Harry Kane instantly make the cut.
Rooney, meanwhile, gets the nod as Shearer’s closest rival in the all-time scoring rankings and one-time Manchester rival Sergio Aguero earns his inclusion on the basis of being the most efficient goalscorer in Premier League history in terms of goals-per-minute. And then there’s the opposing end of the spectrum; England youngster Marcus Rashford – who began his senior career with a goalscoring bang and, whether it’s with United or not, is likely to spend the rest of it in the English game.
The criteria they’re judged on is far from being an exact science – but if the future was easy to predict we’d all be millionaires by now, bathing in Jacuzzis of liquid gold scrubbing ourselves with ivory back-scratchers. The key questions being asked are firstly; scoring at the rate of their last three campaigns, how many more seasons would it take for all five strikers to match Shearer’s record? And secondly; scoring at the rate of their last three campaigns, what total would they reach by the age of 35 when Shearer finally hung up his boots? Extended from that, what strike-rates would they need to beat Shearer’s total by the time they’re 35?
Perhaps what stands out most from our results is that the 261 goals needed to dethrone Shearer isn’t actually beyond any of them – in fact, it’s incredibly plausible. But perhaps the least likeliest is Aguero, who would have to score in excess of 23 times per season until the age of 35.
Only three of his six Premier League campaigns thus far have seen him exceed that total and the Argentine’s vitality at Manchester City has waned since Pep Guardiola took the managerial reins last summer. Likewise, Aguero’s suffered his fair share of injury problems down the years and due to turn 30 at the end of next season, those issue will surely catch up with him sooner rather than later.
Similarly but perhaps more realistically, Rooney has some work to do if he’s to surpass Shearer by the end of the next four years, namely bumping up his strike-rate from 3.44 games per goal to 2.45 – essentially shading off 30% of the time it currently takes him to find the net.
But that’s certainly within the realms of possibility following the former United captain’s move to Everton and for all the criticism that’s come his way, Rooney has proved himself to be an incredibly proficient goalscorer down the years, holding the record for both the Red Devils and the England national team. He’s in with a chance of becoming the Premier League’s record holder too, if returning to Goodison helps restore him to somewhere near his former powers.
Rashford, on the other hand, remains a purely speculative candidate at this moment in time. His current Premier League strike-rate stands at 4.3 games per goal, well short of the ratio needed to become the division’s record-goalscorer by 35 – at that rate, he’d need more than 28 seasons to surpass Shearer.
With only ten goals to his name so far, the strike-rate he needs from this point is actually the third-most demanding after Aguero and Lukaku. But the promise Rashford has shown is undoubted and just shy of 16 goals per season seems a viable target for the England prospect, provided he becomes a starting XI regular over the next few years. As previously mentioned, he also has the advantage of being the likeliest to spend his whole career in the top flight.
That leaves us with our two likeliest future record-breakers – Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku, who can both afford to relax their current games-per-goal ratios and still trump Shearer’s record by retirement age. In fact, based on the form of the last three seasons, Kane would need just 6.5 campaigns more to become the Premier League’s top scorer, at which point he’d still be a few months short of his 30th Birthday.
Lukaku, on the other hand, is looking at around a decade of consistently scoring in excess of 15 goals per season – although moving to a bigger club in Manchester United should, in theory, improve his chances of doing so.
But the real question surrounding both strikers is how long they’ll be in the Premier League for. Lukaku has already shown he isn’t one for personal allegiances should a better offer comes along and it seems implausible Kane will continue scoring at the rate his currently is and remain at Tottenham, especially if they continue to narrowly miss out on silverware.
Eventually, Europe’s elite clubs will come calling for them; whoever decides to stay and who elects to leave could well be what determines the Premier League’s next record goalscorer.
Perhaps the most important result, however, is the suggestion that Shearer’s scoring record is by no means as unmovable as it often seems. In fact, the statistics put it well within Kane and Lukaku’s reach based on their current returns, whilst Aguero and Rooney remain rank outsiders and Rashford’s career could turn in one direction or the other.
Far from invincible, and despite his advantage over present day strikers, we could see a new Premier League top scorer within the next five to ten years.
